摘要：英国有Silicon Fen, Silicon Roundabout, 苏格兰有silicon glen。柏林吹捧Silicon Allee, 纽约则是Silicon Alley。但是整个科技世界的大脑则是位于旧金山中心及周边的这个生态系统。硅谷的创业家、发明家，科技能手和赚钱能手都在为全球经济的各个方面引领革命。

Silicon Valley should be celebrated. But its insularity risks a backlash

THE English have Silicon Fen and Silicon Roundabout, the Scots have Silicon Glen. Berlin boasts Silicon Allee, New York Silicon Alley. But the brain of the tech world is the ecosystem in and around San Francisco. Silicon Valley’s entrepreneurs and innovators, technologists and moneymen are busy revolutionising nearly every aspect of the global economy.

硅谷应当受到欢庆。但是它的与世隔绝可能会在将来造成公众的口诛笔伐

揭秘极客帝国“硅谷”

英国有Silicon Fen, Silicon Roundabout, 苏格兰有silicon glen。柏林吹捧Silicon Allee, 纽约则是Silicon Alley。但是整个科技世界的大脑则是位于旧金山中心及周边的这个生态系统。硅谷的创业家、发明家，科技能手和赚钱能手都在为全球经济的各个方面引领革命。

A place named for its skill in making silicon-packed semiconductors is transforming how firms make decisions, people make friends and protesters make a fuss. Startups touch more people, more quickly than ever before. Airbnb, a seven-year-old firm that helps people turn their homes into hotels, operates in 34,000 towns and cities around the world. “On-demand” firms like Uber are changing what it means to be an employee. Just as the big platforms like Google, Facebook and Apple benefit from “network effects”, because each new user makes the service more valuable for all the others, so the Valley’s success as a venue to launch, fund, staff and sell a technology firm is feeding on itself (see article).

这个地方以其制造硅密集的半导体技术而命名，它在改变着公司决策、人们交友、抗议者聚众闹事的方式。创业公司在以前所未有的速度影响着更多的人。Airbnb，一家帮人们把家变成旅馆的七年公司，在世界上34000个城镇中运营着他们的生意。“随叫随到”的公司，如Uber，正在改变“雇员”的定义。就像谷歌、脸书和苹果从“网络效应”中获益一样，因为每个新用户都会让某项服务对所有其他用户更加有价值，所以硅谷作为发布、集资、雇佣到卖掉一家科技公司的一站式地点，这种成功在不断自我延续。

As a result, American capitalism has a new hub in the west. Wall Street used to be the place to seek fortunes and make deals; now it is increasingly the Valley. The area’s tech companies are worth over $3 trillion. Last year one in five American business-school graduates piled into tech. Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, has warned of mounting competition for Wall Street. Goldman Sachs recently held its annual shareholder meeting in San Francisco.

于是美国的资本主义在西部有了新的枢纽。华尔街过去是寻求财富和做买卖的地方;如今越来越多是在硅谷。硅谷地区的科技公司价值3万亿。去年美国商学院的毕业生中每五个就有一个踏进科技领域。摩根大通集团的老板Jamie Dimon曾经警告华尔街说竞争会越来越激烈。高盛将最近一次股东大会放在旧金山举行。

The enormous, disruptive creativity of Silicon Valley is unlike anything since the genius of the great 19th-century inventors. Its triumph is to be celebrated. But the accumulation of so much wealth so fast comes with risks. The 1990s saw a financial bubble that ended in a spectacular bust. This time the danger is insularity. The geeks live in a bubble that seals off their empire from the world they are doing so much to change.

硅谷无与伦比、破旧立新的创造力是自19世纪伟大的天才发明家以来前所未见的。它的胜利值得庆祝。但是财富积累得如此迅速如此之多，势必带来风险。九十年代见证了金融泡沫的轰然倒塌。这次的风险是极客们的与世隔绝。他们画出了一个泡泡，将自己的帝国和他们改变良多的世界隔绝开来。

Silicon lining

硅谷中的一线光明

The American economy would be hit hard by a repeat of the financial shock that followed the dotcom crash in 2000. With the NASDAQ index near its record high, this is a common fear. Fortunately, although money and talent are pouring into the Valley, there is not yet much danger of a disastrous bust. That is because tech companies today not only have more robust business models than their dotcom predecessors did (ie, many actually make money), but they also rely on a smaller group of financial backers.

美国经济会在2000年互联网泡沫崩溃后受到一轮轮金融动荡的袭击。纳斯达克指数现在已经临近历史最高点，人们普遍感到恐慌。虽然人才和钱财疯狂涌入硅谷，但是幸运的是一场灾难性的崩溃的风险并不大。因为今日的科技公司不仅比互联网泡沫时期的科技公司有更具弹性的商业模型(比如，很多公司实际是盈利的)，而且他们背后有小型金融财团的支持。

Today’s firms are staying private for longer. Tech firms that went public in 2014 were on average 11 years old; back in 1999 they waited only four years before listing their shares. Tapping wealthy investors means risk is borne by people who can afford to take losses. It is easy to lament the decline of the publicly listed company (though even when founders do list they keep a tight rein), but if tech firms fall short of their promises, ordinary investors are less likely to see their wealth destroyed.

如今的公司愿意花更长时间保持私有。2014年上市的科技公司平均有11年历史;1999年科技公司在创业4年后就公开股份。利用富有的投资人就意味着由这些不怕损失的人们来承担风险。对上市公司数量的下降感到遗憾是太简单的事情(即使创始人将公司上市，他们还是将公司控制在咫尺之内)，但是如果科技公司无法践行诺言，一般投资者不大可能受到损失。

Staying private allows entrepreneurs to avoid the headaches that come from being quoted: the nuisance of activist investors, the drudgery of compliance, the vision-crushing ritual of quarterly reporting. In theory, a coterie of investors is better than an anonymous multitude of shareholders at making sure managers act in the interests of all a firm’s owners.

公司不上市让创业者们不必为自己的言论上报而头疼：激进投资人的烦人行径，费力不讨好的迎合，摧毁远见的季度报告。理论上，在确保管理层的行为符合所有公司所有者的利益上，一小撮投资者总比一大堆不知名的股东更好对付。

But staying private has risks, too. One is that firms under no obligation to make public a full set of audited accounts will remain veiled from the scrutiny of analysts and short-sellers and so act irresponsibly. America’s tech “unicorns”—firms that have reached a valuation of more than $1 billion—are worth around $300 billion between them. The danger that some of this capital is being misallocated is high.

但是不上市也有风险。其一是，如果公司没有将审计账目公开的义务，它们将远离分析人员和卖空行家的审视目光，所以这些公司会胡作非为。美国科技“独角兽”——价值超过十亿美元的公司——总共价值三千亿美元。这些资金被错置的风险很高。

The other risk is that a charmed circle with great wealth becomes cut off from everyone else. For a group rewriting the rules for industry after industry, that is a special danger.

另一个风险是，这种如有神助的巨资循环远离了其他人群。对于一个改写了许多行业规矩的团体来说，这是一个特别的风险。

The empire of the geeks draws its strength from a culture of techno-evangelism that enables entrepreneurs to rethink old systems and embrace new ones. Many denizens of the Valley believe that tech is the solution to all ills and that government is just an annoyance that still lacks an algorithm. So far the public’s relationship with the tech titans has been mostly harmonious. Consumers enjoy their taxi-hailing apps, music streaming and voice-recognition software.

极客帝国从一种热烈鼓吹科技的文化中汲取能量，这让创业家们对老系统进行重新思考，张开双臂迎接新系统。硅谷谷民相信科技包治百病，政府是个还没采用计算机算法的惹人嫌的存在。迄今为止公众与科技大神们相处极为融洽。消费者享用着打车应用、音乐在线播放和语音识别软件。

Yet cracking open established industries inevitably results in conflict. Uber is the firm most embroiled in controversy, whether facing licensed taxi-drivers on the streets or demands from its own drivers in the courts. European regulators are also scrutinising firms like Facebook and Google for everything from antitrust concerns to data protection. And American regulators are reportedly looking at whether Apple has abused its clout in the music business.

但是在成熟的行业中开辟新路势必会造成冲突。Uber是处于在风口浪尖上的公司，无论它面对的是街上持许可证的出租车司机，还是法庭上它自己的司机用户。欧洲国家的监管部门同样在事无巨细地审批脸书、谷歌这样的公司，从反垄断到数据保护。美国的监管部门则在审查苹果是否在滥用它在音乐商业中的影响力。

Critics are often from industries wanting to protect their privileges; the geeks’ aggressive behaviour is sometimes part of the creative destruction that leads to progress. But that is not the only source of anger. Silicon Valley also dominates markets, sucks out the value contained in personal data, and erects business models that make money partly by avoiding taxes. There is a risk that global consumers will feel exploited and that the effects of a shrinking tax base will infuriate voters. If the perception takes root that enormous profits from exploiting data and avoiding taxes are crystallised in the fortunes of a few people living on a patch of ground near San Francisco, then there will be a backlash.

批评的人往往来自想要保护自身利益的行当;有时极客们侵略性的行为是一种创造式的摧毁，最后会引向进步。但人们的愤怒不仅来源于此。硅谷还霸占了市场，将个人数据中的价值压榨得一干二净，创造出部分靠避税盈利的商业模式。潜在的风险是，全球的消费者感到被剥削利用，税收的减少会激怒投票者。在旧金山住的这些人利用个人数据和逃税为自己牟取了巨大的财富，这种看法一旦形成，会有民众强烈反对他们的行为。

Mind the techlash

小心民众的一致反对

The Valley’s firms are hardly the only ones to push against taxes and regulation. They are free to operate as they like within the law. But they risk becoming targets because they are so global. They should remember that the law can change. If they want a seat at the table when it does, they need to be part of the markets they sell into, not isolated from them. Even private firms run by geniuses need a licence from society to operate.

硅谷的公司不可能是唯一税务和法规上打擦边球的。他们在法律允许范畴之内任意运筹，但是可能会因为他们的全球性而成为靶子。他们应当铭记，法律是可以改变的。如果他们想在法律改变之际有发言权，他们就必须成为他们市场的一部分，而不是与其隔绝。即使是天才运营的私有公司还需要社会颁发一张许可才能经营呢。

At its best Silicon Valley is an expression of iconoclastic freedom and creativity. It would be a terrible shame if it became an unpopular and remote manifestation of elitism.

硅谷最多是反传统的自由、创新的一种表达。如果它变成了一种不受欢迎、只能远观的精英主义，才是令其颜面扫地的事。